Market analyst Markus Thielen from 10x Research predicts that Bitcoin miners might sell off around $5 billion worth of Bitcoin after the next halving event, which is set for April 19th.
This expected sale is similar to past trends and may result in a prolonged period of stable Bitcoin prices. It is identical to the five-month range-bound period between $9,000 and $11,500 that followed the 2020 halving.
Thielen’s analysis suggests that the crypto markets may face a “significant challenge” in the form of a six-month “summer lull” as miners seek to offload their accumulated Bitcoin holdings.
This situation is based on the idea that miners usually gather Bitcoin before the halving, which disrupts the balance between supply and demand and pushes prices up. Indeed, Bitcoin has surged 74% in 2024, reaching an all-time high of $73,734 on March 14th before correcting to below $63,000 in mid-April.
Thielen’s calculations indicate that Marathon, the world’s largest Bitcoin miner, could release an additional 133 days’ worth of supply onto the market post-halving, in addition to their daily production of 14-15 BTC.
If other miners follow a similar strategy, Thielen estimates that “this could result in a maximum of $104 million of BTC selling per day – reversing the supply/demand imbalance that caused BTC to rally pre-halving.”
While Thielen’s analysis focuses primarily on the potential impact on Bitcoin, he also suggests that altcoins could bear the brunt of this situation, with many already experiencing significant declines from their 2021 peaks.
Also Read: Bitcoin Halving Set to Cut Miners’ Revenue by $10 Billion
