The betting volume for the 2024 U.S. presidential election on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, recently crossed the $2 billion mark.
As of October 17, Trump leads the market with approximately $615 million in bets and a 62.3% chance of winning, while Harris has amassed $409 million in betting volume with 37.5% winning odds.
The rapid surge in betting activity followed Polymarket’s earlier milestone of crossing $1 billion in volume on September 24. The two billion mark was achieved in just 23 days, a significant acceleration compared to the platform’s previous growth rate.
Polymarket’s prediction market has grown substantially in October, with a 113.7% increase in volume compared to September’s $533.5 million. The platform’s volume for October reached $1.14 billion by mid-month, reflecting increased political betting as the November 5 election nears.
This election cycle has been a major driver of growth for Polymarket, which also raised $45 million in Series B funding earlier in 2024 and has plans to raise another $50 million, along with potential plans to launch its own token.​
The platform has gained significant attention due to endorsements from figures like Elon Musk, who praised its predictive accuracy over traditional polls.
Musk has also donated nearly $75 million to the America PAC, a pro-Republican group supporting Donald Trump in the 2024 U.S. presidential race. He has publicly endorsed Donald Trump for the 2024 U.S. election, even joining him at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, where he referred to himself as “Dark MAGA.”
The Polymarket odds currently suggest that Trump has a clear lead over Harris, but the race remains dynamic, and both candidates’ stances, particularly on issues like cryptocurrency, are influencing voter sentiment​.
